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. 2020 Oct 6;54(19):12423-12433.
doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b06983. Epub 2020 Sep 9.

Impact of U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Emission Increases on Surface Ozone Is Most Pronounced in the Central United States

Andrea Pozzer  1 , Martin G Schultz  2 , Detlev Helmig  3
Affiliations

Impact of U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Emission Increases on Surface Ozone Is Most Pronounced in the Central United States

Andrea Pozzer et al. Environ Sci Technol. .

Abstract

Observations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from a surface sampling network and simulation results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) model were analyzed to assess the impact of increased emissions of VOCs and nitrogen oxides from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources on air quality. In the first step, the VOC observations were used to optimize the magnitude and distribution of atmospheric ethane and higher-alkane VOC emissions in the model inventory for the base year 2009. Observation-based increases of the emissions of VOCs and NOx stemming from U.S. oil and natural gas (O&NG) sources during 2009-2014 were then added to the model, and a set of sensitivity runs was conducted for assessing the influence of the increased emissions on summer surface ozone levels. For the year 2014, the added O&NG emissions are predicted to affect surface ozone across a large geographical scale in the United States. These emissions are responsible for an increased number of days when the averaged 8-h ozone values exceed 70 ppb, with the highest sensitivity being in the central and midwestern United States, where most of the O&NG growth has occurred. These findings demonstrate that O&NG emissions significantly affect the air quality across most of the United States, can regionally offset reductions of ozone precursor emissions made in other sectors, and can have a determining influence on a region's ability to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) obligations for ozone.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of O&NG emissions in the continental United States that were added to the model simulations. The color bar shows the emission increase as a fraction of the total (in 2009) in % per year.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Model_Run_O&NG_Trend output for 2014–2009 mean summer ozone changes (top) compared to the ozone changes over the same time interval seen in Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) data extracted for grid cells with available observations (bottom). The corresponding model output for the entire domain is available in SI Figure 6.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Difference in summer 24 h mean surface ozone between the Model_Run_O&NG_Trend versus the Model_Run_RCP85 simulation for the year 2014. These results reflect the impact of added O&NG emission on surface ozone.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Simulated number of additional days with 8 h summer ozone in 2014 above 70 ppb due to the O&NG 2009–2014 emission increase. Shown are the differences from the Model_Run_O&NG_Trend versus the Model_Run_RCP85 simulations.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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