Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction
Abstract
Whether dinosaurs were in decline before their final extinction 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. This dispute has not been resolved because of inappropriate data and methods. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a statistical approach that models changes in speciation and extinction through time. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three major dinosaur groups. Our results highlight that dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event 66 Mya.
- Publication:
-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- May 2016
- DOI:
- Bibcode:
- 2016PNAS..113.5036S
- Keywords:
-
- dinosaurs;
- evolution;
- speciation;
- phylogeny;
- Bayesian methods